12 Predictions for the Future of Consumer Cannabis
So what’s the deal with weed?
It’s sort of legal, but also not really. It’s a plant … or at least a flower that’s derived from one. Back when it mostly grew out of the ground, it was demonized by Nixon’s DEA as a gateway drug; now that it’s taxable and grown in hulking, byzantine greenhouses, it’s seen as a path to redemption from the opioid epidemic and a road to riches for investors and entrepreneurs.
The sales of legal cannabis are projected to reach somewhere in the realm of $35 billion within the next five years. The actual economic impact of that market could hit $130 billion in that same timeframe. Marijuana startups are cropping up like they were being founded in hydroponic soil and bathed in UV light. Dozens of cannabis companies (mostly based in Canada, since it’s not federally legal in the US) are already available for trading in American markets. Marijuana is fully legal in 15 states (as well as DC) and at least somewhat legal in all but three states.
The green wave is coming. My inbox flows over with PR pitches from upstart marijuana companies and thinkpieces about the industry every week. In my financial news consumption, I hear about cannabis stocks on a near daily basis. In my political reading, I’m constantly reminded of the state-vs.-federal debate that underpins policy and legalization. And in keeping up with social-justice issues, I’m constantly reminded of the ugly and devastating impact marijuana and the war on drugs has had on Black and brown communities across the country.
But rather than try to summarize all these things and write a dreadfully underqualified synopsis of where the industry is heading over the next decade, I figured it would be better to talk to experts – founders, investors, lobbyists, organizers and more – from across the cannabis landscape to get their thoughts directly. I asked them broad questions about what the next decade of consumer cannabis will look like, and from their answers, I was able to parse together 12 predictions for what the next 10 years hold.
This is not an exhaustive or definitive list; it is a compendium of common themes and predictions I saw from speaking with a sizable amount of industry professionals. It is by no means gospel, but it is – we hope – a document that will give you thoughtful insight into a nascent sector of the American economy that is only destined to keep growing. That’s what plants do, after all.
Getting Stoned Out of Your Gourd Will No Longer Be the Goal
“Microdosing cannabis will become the preferred performance, productivity and wellness tool across many professions, including pro sports. Microdoses of cannabis become commercially available in settings where consumers face triggers for stress or anxiety, e.g., airports and airplanes, dental offices, etc.” – David Cookson, Founder, Sula
“There’s a misconception about what a large swath of the market wants out of a cannabis experience. While there’s a legacy community of consumers who want to get very high or for whom a high THC percentage is simply the norm, there’s a much larger existing and nascent consumer demo that is looking for a more moderate and functional high. Just as not everyone wants to be drunk when they drink, not everyone wants to be blasted when they’re high.” – David Weiner, Co-Founder, Gossamer
“Microdosed products will not only become more popular, they will be the norm. Products with a mild dose of THC are the most appealing to mainstream consumers that are open to cannabis but have not tried or have not tried recently. It is these products, like our Cann Social Tonics with 2mg THC, that will bring in waves of new consumers to the industry. They care about feeling in control, having consistent experiences that are turnkey, energizing and social. Watch out for more and more microdose THC products across all product categories.” – Jake Bullock, Co-Founder, Cann
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