In October 2022, President Joe Biden directed the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to review cannabis’s scheduling under the Controlled Substances Act. Currently, cannabis is a Schedule I narcotic in the US, which is defined as “drugs, chemicals or substances with no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.” Cannabis currently holds the same standing as heroin, lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), methylenedioxymethamphetamine (ecstasy), methaqualone, and peyote.
Based on this review, it was recommended that cannabis be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III, which are drugs that have moderate or low potential for abuse and would be in line with other controlled substances such as Tylenol and Codeine. However, this change did not take place, as President Biden’s term ended before tangible action could be taken.
This brings us to August 2025, when current President Donald Trump announced that he is now considering rescheduling cannabis. If such changes were to come to fruition under the Trump administration, this would open up the medical cannabis market, allowing for more research, investment, and funding opportunities, as well as access to some first-time tax incentives for the industry. And looking across the Atlantic, the European cannabis markets stand to be major winners following reclassification in the US.
The president’s consideration comes at a turning point for the US in its approach to cannabis policy. Cannabis has already gained a foothold in the states as a multi-billion-dollar industry, generating jobs, investment opportunities, and fueling significant tax revenue. In the US, 40 states have legalized medical cannabis, and 24 have legalized it for adult use.
RELATED: Three pot stocks to watch as cannabis rescheduling looms
Impact on Global Cannabis Markets
The impact of reclassification in the US will stretch far beyond the borders of North America and will spill over into Europe and other foreign markets. Upon the latest announcement of reclassifying cannabis, stock prices surged, which also signifies that there will be sufficient growth capital for emerging markets around the world.
In the long term, the rescheduling of cannabis would likely set into motion the normalization of financial institutions’ banking and custody policies toward the US cannabis industry. If cannabis is moved from Schedule I to Schedule III, the US tax code 280E would be removed, allowing operators to improve their cash flow and valuations. With stronger U.S. balance sheets and financial institutions no longer worrying that they are at risk of losing their FDIC insurance, global investor interest in the sector will grow.
This will benefit European operators seeking investments or dual listing–without waiting for EU policy to change. Additionally, US cannabis corporations will likely be equipped with sufficient capital to expand into and invest in the European market via M&A activities.
With regards to science and research, reclassification would bring about more FDA-style clinical trials and IP around defined cannabinoid preparations. With more evidence-backed studies, the industry will adopt more standardized dosage and quality practices, leading to greater safety, increased normalization of use, and market stability on a global scale.
What reclassification in the US will not do is immediately federalize state-market cannabis or interstate commerce within the states. It also does not automatically permit exports of cannabis from the US to Europe. The export of controlled substances from the US to Europe is subject to DEA registration and permits and import permits under the Single Convention. Germany and other EU states also require that all medical cannabis imported into the country must meet strict quality control standards, European Union Good Manufacturing Practice (EU GMP) certification, and Good Agricultural and Collection Practice (GACP).
RELATED: Dispensary founder shares lessons for success
Look to Germany
To help predict the potential growth outcomes that reclassification can have on the US cannabis market, one can look to Germany, another country that reclassified cannabis as a non-narcotic in April 2024 under its Cannabis Act (CanG). Reclassification removed unnecessary administrative burdens on the medical cannabis market and allowed more patients to access the plant as a wellness treatment. This is reflected both in the number of patients and prescriptions in the market.
As reported by Whitney Economics, there were an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 medical cannabis patients in the German market prior to the reclassification of cannabis in Germany. In May 2025, only one year after CanG had passed, it was estimated that 500,000 to 600,000 patients were participating in the legalized self-paying market. We might even see a million patients in total by the end of this year.
According to a recent report conducted by Bloomwell Group, a medical cannabis company based in Frankfurt, between May and June 2025, the number of prescriptions filled on the company’s digital platform exceeded those from March 2024—the final month before medical cannabis was reclassified—by more than 1100 percent, a new record high.
RELATED: High returns: How data can maximize your cannabis investment
Preparing for Reclassification
There’s significant and expedited growth that policy change can have on the market. For US investors, operators, and other stakeholders to capitalize on the potential reclassification can bring to the global cannabis market, it’s essential to get your house in order. This includes anticipating US capital entering the EU supply chains and bolstering stable, forefront markets like Germany.
To help ensure that their infrastructure is acquisition- and investment-ready, US firms will need to look into locking down EU-GMP certifications and establishing partnerships with operators who have a track record of success in their local markets and navigating their country’s government policies. Especially beyond import & distribution – in Germany, more than 100 wholesalers exist – innovative, scalable businesses might be the next targets for US investors and buyers.
*This article was submitted by a guest contributor. The author is solely responsible for the content.